A Climate Leviathan

Recently, I was able to read Joel Wainwright and Geoff Mann's book Climate Leviathan, an intriguing look at how global politics must (and will) change as a response to looming climate change. The two analyze the problem from a leftist perspective, using previous philosophical discourse, political commentary, and the truly global nature of the problem to arrive at a simple conclusion; some form of supranational entity may be the only way to address the creeping climate emergency.

They lay out their reasoning quite well, pointing out how, in the words of Ursula K. Le Guin (quoting others) "it is easier to imagine an end to the world than an end to capitalism" and this is, especially in the political and economic sphere, rather true. From the failures of the world to band together in any meaningful way, to the flub that was the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, to increasing use of fossil fuels and no existent plan to meaningfully reduce their use. This is contrasted to the poisoned pill that the Obama administration took up in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis where banks were bailed out and, rather than hold those responsible to account, next to no one was prosecuted or censured for the outrageous acts that lead to the greatest recession in nearly a century.

With these somewhat depressing facts in mind, the authors both critique capitalism and the current liberal/neoliberal establishment that, as yet, has proven almost completely incapable of meaningfully addressing climate change. With no national solution (no single country can address or alter the global climate trajectory) to the problem, the authors posit a Hobbesian Leviathan which takes on supranational importance to govern the global response to the climate emergency. It would be, largely, the existing capitalist/liberal system we know, with tweaks to allow for supranational action. This is contrasted between the 'Climate Behemoth' which is a reactionary rejection of Leviathan where reactionary elements fight and defeat it, making a muddled, uneasy, and disunified fight at regional scale or simply national against climate change.

In contrast to those, we see Climate Mao, an authoritarian supranational entity which would be swept up by not only a populist clamoring for action to mitigate and adapt to the climate emergency, but also punish those responsible. On a global scale this would be rank authoritarianism of the worst kind, while also a means of cathartic solution to popular unrest as those deemed responsible (even their descendants) meet an unkind fate.

The authors stress though that none of these would be in any sense democratic. Mao is the most notably authoritarian, but Leviathan, despite coming with the trappings of liberal democracy, would still command the power and respect to crush dissent largely beneath its heel, and have the justification of saving the world in order to quash any other objections to its programs.

Only one imagined system, dubbed Climate X, would see this not come to pass. A decentralized and supranational, but not quite coordinated, movement of resistance to control, green energy initiatives, and effective decolonization of the modern neoliberal/capitalist systems and other statist means of control. It is moderately utopian in its vision, but the authors stress, not impossible or unimaginable. They lay out no specific goals, and only some examples, but offer it as a tantalizing image of a world where many old inequalities are torn down, but not one which is perfect.

Interestingly, this is not the first I have encountered the idea that planetary governance may be the only way to mitigate the worst fallout from climate change. In the world of The Expanse for instance, after centuries of climate disaster, the nations of the world prove unable to fight the devastation in isolation and so abdicate their political sovereignty in exchange for help to the UN which works to right the wrongs of a ravaged planet. In the Star Carrier series, we see something similar with the Terran Confederation and other supranational entities having banded together to help mitigate the damage. And in Kim Stanley Robinson's 2312 we see a world just hinting at better multinational collaboration for future cooperation.

While science fiction often is often only an examination of the present through a futuristic lens, it does say something that you can find many works envisioning the horrors of climate change only being capable of being resisted by humanity (more or less) united. As the authors of this work posit, fighting climate change in isolation is most likely going to be impossible, leading to supranational organizations and demands to fight against it, or even correct further damage. While this is, for now, only the speculation of some political wonks and science fiction writers, science fiction has occasionally been predictive rather than merely speculative.

Climate change and the various crisis it will entail is a threat to all of humanity, and despite this many people pretend that they can hide from the effects, whether with walls or money. A change in the planet though, is a change for everyone, and as changing weather patters, wildfires, and extreme weather events have shown, even the wealthy and powerful in the West are not immune. Whether we willingly, or unwillingly band together to fight this crisis remains to be seen, but the speculation on the nature (or necessity) of a potential Climate Leviathan is there, and does deserve some pondering on.

The Second Sleep

In 1468, a young priest is sent to bury his predecessor in a remote village. In arriving he sees that the man was distinctly odd, with a number of coins, bone fragments and bits of glass from the ancient world in his collection. Did his seeming obsession with the ancient world lead to his death? What does he know of the lost world of the ancients?

For you see, this is not our 1468.

In his new novel, Robert Harris delivers another exciting tale of alternate history. The world is only just rising from peril, and it is enduring a time of The Second Sleep. Some spoilers follow.

I've reviewed Harris's work before, Fatherland being a staple of the alternate history genre, but he delivers exciting reads in straight historical fiction and thrillers as well. This new work of his is merely another excellent exploration on these themes with a twist. Considering it came out in 2019, just before our own cozy catastrophe took place, it seems fitting to review it after the fact.

Young priest Christopher Fairfax sets out from Exeter to a small village called Addicott St. George, where he is tasked to perform a funeral and at least perform mass for the people until a replacement can be sent. There he discovers that all is not as it seems in this little village. The people are dour, rural, and insular, which bothers Fairfax as he goes about his duties and tries to flee as quickly as he can. Unfortunately, bad weather traps him in the little valley, and he thus must work to do his duties. 

He does though, come upon a mystery. The old priest had a collection of items from before the apocalypse, coins, plastic, dolls and a complete Apple iPhone on display. Alongside them, a series of heretical books that seem to challenge the teachings of the Church where the world was destroyed by the Beast. At the funeral he meets local notables John Hancock and Sarah Durston, who verify the priest had strange doings. A minor tension mounts between Hancock and Fairfax as they both seem to vie for the affections of Lady Durston. The mystery deepens as they learn that there is supposedly a treasure hidden near where the old priest died. They set out to discover more about his yearnings for the past.

In turns out that the story has picked up up roughly eight centuries after an unspecified calamity which has been identified as the Apocalypse of John from the Book of Revelation by the people at the time. It is an interesting response as, in a similar story to A Canticle for Leibowitz, the people living through this calamity have knowingly thrown off the technological society of their forebears and then wrapped the fall of the old world in religious significance, which has been spun into official history by the power of the Church in order to keep England (mentioned as now unified under Church and Crown) in order unlike the calamity of the bad old days.

With this forceful renunciation of technological society, old superstitions come back hard. Ghosts, demons, evil spirits, and other ideas are rife in rural areas, and even some cities. The Church does little to dissuade these ideas, and even frowns on many innovations. Wind, water and muscle power are the primary movers of society, and though they have not lost access to gunpowder, the weapons of the day are crude in comparison to those that came before the Apocalypse. Harris also paints a haunting picture of a world where the old has washed away, the glories of the 21st Century looked on at like ancient Roman ruins, and barely a trace of the ancient world still stands. It's emblematic in how many of the (now ancient) manor houses of England are either in ruins or barely kept afloat by proud aristocratic families.

That this old history is presented as a minor mystery is a bit odd. Everyone knows the world collapsed, and it seems that the Church also helped tie society together again, which meant that at some point in the past the collective trauma of the Apocalypse pushed people to adopt this story that the world did indeed end - in a way. After eight hundred years much of that would be forgotten, and Church teaching would have calcified into a more mystical version and other histories might indeed be suppressed. But with everyone knowing technological society collapsed, one of the main mysteries (especially the how and why) never quite gets addressed satisfactorily. Indeed, for what one of the major revelations turns out to be in the end it is barely hinted at, at all and could have provided a much more compelling drama!

That being said, the obfuscation of the calamity, the Church efforts to cover up the past, and the way society has regressed, does create an interesting crusade to find out about the old world. The mystery and interplay between characters is fun as it shows a healthy skepticism amongst many which runs up against rigid attempts at imposing order on society in the after a calamity long ago.

While perhaps not the great mystery it was meant to be, it certainly paints a vivid picture of a world which has moved on from its former glory. Humanity has survived, but has it thrived? The characters present interesting contrasts and make for some amusing drama, while showing us just how people live in this world. It also reminds us that no society is immune from decline or collapse, and raises disturbing questions about just how secure our own world is. Fascinating reading.

Cinco de Mayo

Every year in the Fifth of May, many Americans mistakenly believe they are celebrating Mexican independence day (It's September 16th by the way, the Cry of Dolores). While this is often a veneer for eating many tacos and getting drunk on tequila, the Fifth of May is in fact an important day in Mexican history. However, it was not a moment of independence, but instead when a Mexican force which, by conventional wisdom should have been overrun and scattered, held out and threw back one of the armies with the highest prestige in Europe. Let me tell you the story of the true Cinco de Mayo.

It begins in 1861, not a great year for a lot of people, but after a nasty little civil war the Mexican government under Benito Juarez decided that in order to get their house back in order and get around to running the nation they would need some financial relief. This not being the era of the IMF, that meant they needed to default on loan payments to the European powers. The powers of Europe, primarily Spain, Britain, and France, didn't much care for that and decided to sign the Convention of London, in which they declared they would use force in order to make Mexico pay its loans back.

Thus in October of that year, an allied fleet landed at the port of Veracruz and took hold of the important port city. The intention was that Mexico would be forced to divert at least some of its national incomes to paying the foreign powers, but one man had much more grandiose ideas.

Napoleon III, Emperor of the French, who had overthrown the Second Republic and established the Second Empire in a coup, had grand imperial ambitions. Exiles from the conservative side of Mexico's previous civil war had whispered in his ear that he might gain glory, and perhaps more importantly, money from engaging in an adventure to overthrow Juarez and his republican allies. Napoleon, readily agreed and dispatched 6,000 men to the country under the command of Count de Lorencez, Charles Latrille. Lorencez was the scion of a minor noble family born in 1814 he had studied Saint-Cyr and graduated in 1832, earning the rank of colonel after service in Algeria. He fought in the Crimea, fighting in the successful French assault on the Malakoff Redoubt earning his rank as a major general.

Facing him would be Ignacio Zaragoza, a republican general who was a confidant of and fiercely loyal to President Juarez. He had under him some 4,000 troops who were a motley assortment of army regulars, militia with odds and ends, and locals with whatever came to hand. They were expecting reinforcements, but they would not arrive in time for the French assault. He did however, prepare to defend the town by positioning his men on two forts that had been built to defend the town in the late civil war. 

Fort Loreto and Fort Guadalupe defended the town of Puebla right along the French line of advance. To capture the town the French would necessarily have to assault these two forts. Knowing he faced a far better armed and more experienced force, Zaragoza dug a trench between the two forts along the saddle of the two hills on which they sat.

The French meanwhile, were quite overconfident in their analysis of their capabilities. The 6,500 men under Lorencez's command were veterans of recent wars in Europe and China, and armed with the latest modern Minie rifles and artillery. Such was his disdain for his Mexican opponents Lorencez declared that his men were “…so superior to the Mexican in terms of race, organization and moral discipline that now at the head of 6,000 soldiers I am the master of Mexico.” Indeed, most observers thought that the French would handily win the upcoming battle.

Overconfident at winning a skirmish with Mexican forces on the 28th of April, as Lorencez's French troops approached Puebla on the 5th of May at a leisurely pace. So overconfident was Lorencez that he decided he would attack the Mexican fortifications head on. His officers attempted to dissuade him from this course of action, but with what he assumed were superior men and weapons, he decided to bull ahead anyways. 

French cannon began a bombardment of Fort Guadalupe, but poor terrain, and getting too close made it difficult to aim. The defenders were further protected by their trenches and the masonry of the forts. Having fired off over half their ammunition, Lorencez ordered his troops to advance. A glittering array of French Zouaves supported by marines advanced a 12pm noon, only to be driven back by withering Mexican fire from their trenches. Lorencez decided to change his tactics, and this time made a diversionary attack south of Fort Loreto, while again sending his Zouaves up the center covered by marines. This proved more successful and the Zouaves actually managed to rise the tricolor along a section of the Mexican line before being beaten back again. In this action, fierce combat ensued against the French diversionary attack led by Mexican leader Porifio Diaz.

Finally, Lorencez allowed his men to rest and bombarded the Mexican forts again. By 2pm he had used all of his artillery ammunition, but was determined to launch a do or die attack and assembled all of his remaining men to launch an assault. This time the French advanced, making it to the Mexican line and fighting hard, and the battle became a general melee. After an hour of fighting, it began to rain turning the battlefield to mud, and Zaragoza, who could not believe his luck, ordered his cavalry under Diaz to strike the French in the flank. This unexpected attack demoralized the French and inflicted further casualties. Fearing the worst, and seeing no hope of breaching the Mexican lines, Lorencez ordered a withdrawal and dug in for an expected Mexican counterattack which did not immediately materialize.

It was an amazing victory for the Mexican forces. They had lost only 83 killed and a 132 wounded, while inflicting over 700 casualties on the French. In total, the French would lose 462 dead and 300 wounded. A humiliating reversal for French troops, and Zaragosa would say "The national arms have been covered with glory.”

Zaragoza was soon reinforced to a strength of 12,000 men, and while he pursued them and attempted to assault their positions at Orizaba, a French counterattack convinced him to retreat back to Puebla where he would fall ill and pass away a mere four months after his great victory. His incapacity meant that the Mexicans lost the Battle of Cerro del Borrego in June, leaving both armies where they had started. Tragically, their failure to drive the French to the coast meant the French would return with 30,000 men a year later and besiege the town again, and inflict a humiliating defeat on the Mexicans at the Siege of Puebla. A further four years of war would see a short lived French occupation, and finally an expulsion of the puppet monarchy installed by the French.

The 5th of May, once the war was won, became acknowledged as a great victory against the odds. In a battle no one expected Mexico to win the French were driven back at great cost, while Mexico could proudly say they had brought great honor to Mexican arms and won the first battle to maintain their independence. So raise a glass of cerveza and have some hot peppers and cry Viva Mexico!