Storming the Capitol (1/6) A Year On

It is hard to believe that the terrible events of January 6th are now only a year old. In fact it seems almost like yesterday, even though so much has happened since then. While hundreds have been arrested and tried for the act, it appears as though they are going down as martyrs rather than treasonous criminals. Indeed, there is a frightening divide in the United States now where a purely partisan reality is entrenching itself. On one side is the old liberal order which trusts the rule of law to see them through, and on the other is a new, reactionary far right ideology which sees itself as persecuted by a corrupt system. The outright lie that the 2020 election was stolen seems to be, rather than weakened for the farce that it is, strengthened by commentators and politicians on the right pandering to a myth.

It does not bode well for the future.

I've seen the pernicious effects of this myself. Whether from online commentators calling the events 'staged' or 'mischaracterized' despite them happening on live television and hundreds live streaming their ideology and actions to the world. Or you have sitting politicians willingly and maliciously downplaying or outright fabricating events. One of the few people killed is now being hailed as a martyr by the right wing, while the GOP has been doing everything it can to hamper the investigation into events by the government.

Meanwhile the Democrats, ostensibly the party in power, have been reacting to the GOP outright enabling and allowing this treasonous talk with what one could call suicidal faith in the rule of law. Rather than treating the situation as unprecedented in modern US history, they seem to act as though as this were something that might be brushed under the rug. That it will be decided in the courts and in the ballot boxes. The GOP, whether through embracing the violent rhetoric or attempting to control the courts, treats this as a fight to the death.

Whether it is because an aging Democratic leadership in Washington is out of touch with most of the country - or reality - or simply an abundance of faith in the system (or adversity to changing it) they seem to be setting the stage for defeat in 2022. That could lead to worse, a defeat in 2024. The GOP seems to let no rules or boundaries constrain them. While recently the Democrats felt bound by the Senate Parliamentarian, the GOP in a similar situation fired and replaced them. This is nothing new, in the past decade the GOP flouted norms as it suited them, and the Democratic politicians have done almost nothing to stop them, or challenge them at their own game.

I'm not saying a game of political brinkmanship is the solution to the US's ills, but showing more backbone to authoritarians has never really been a problem. Rather than tackling the GOP head on, they target the foot soldiers and not the enablers. Only time will tell if their ongoing investigation into events bears fruit or even tilts the political headwinds slightly.

So far though, the divide between left and right is entrenching. I wrote last year that there are still chances for Americans to come together, if they can merely stop demonizing each other and understand their own common ground. But to do that one has to peer beyond a wall of rhetoric, hate, and fear. Many fears are sadly not rational. The ones propelling those who stormed the Capitol a year ago least of all. In the end, all we can really hope is that a nation's leadership can stand firm before an oncoming storm. It ain't over yet.

The 2020 Election

I actually held off publishing my opinion on the most recent American election because I had a sinking suspicion that even after November, things would get worse before they got better. Oh boy was I right about that! So let's just try and unpack this. I've got bits in here I wrote between November and now so this took some editing, but here's my thoughts.

In 2020 the United States probably had its most nerve wracking election in the last fifty years, if not the last century. Two septuagenarian white men went toe to toe for the position of the most powerful man in the United States, possibly the world. It was, frankly, an election which felt like it would never end. I can tell you that beforehand everyone felt some great anticipation for how it turned out, and now in the aftermath, I personally only feel a sense of anticlimax.

From Bloomberg

There does not need to be a divide so deep before this upcoming election. As I wrote back in 2016, Americans can still come together. They have more in common than many suppose. In the following paragraphs though, after the events of January 6th, I realize some of what I previously wrote might ring hollow, but here it is.

I grow sad when I watch members of the left reach out and attack anyone who supports Trump. Not just his rabid supporters who flock to rallies, but even people who identify as Republican or who say they voted for Trump. There does not need to be this kind of divide, and it is a divide which only benefits Donald Trump. It is the sort of rhetoric that he, and demagogues like him, thrive on. You are either with him or against him, there is no middle ground. It breeds division and disunion, something which Trump needs to even survive.

I'm not saying this because I condone the actions of Trump, or even think his supporters are right for supporting him. I merely say this because I believe two things. One is that I think very few people stop to take a moment to realize how dangerous and isolating the current American political divide is. So many people create, intentionally or not, echo chambers for themselves on social media and in the news they choose to consume. Speaking as someone who grew up consuming a lot from both the left and the right (watching John Stewart and Stephen Colbert in the evening and checking the Conservapedia and Fox News trackers afterwards) it's very easy for me to understand how the messaging gets mixed and right wing propaganda is shoved down people's throats. This meant that many people who voted for him did so because they really didn't know another opportunity existed, and that's been the danger of media bubbles and propaganda - people who might otherwise make another decision simply did not. There's more to that, but I'll address that in a moment.

Like I said in 2016, yes there's racism, populism, and white supremacy, but in 2020-21 it's important to acknowledge that there are people on the right side of the aisle who aren't complete monsters. There were those who were conservative who condemned Trump, and whether you believe that the Lincoln Project accomplished anything or not it did show that members of the Republican Party are not a monolithic bloc bound to vote for the orange maniac. Even after the disturbing events of early January, a majority of Republicans polled did not support those actions. 

The second reason I'm hopeful people can reach out is because solidarity is an extremely important aspect in making democracy work. People who want a New Green Deal don't want miners to lose their jobs and have no alternatives, they want them to have other options, not be forced to stay put in dying towns. People who want Medicare for all want everyone regardless of political party to have access to affordable healthcare and not be driven to poverty over medical expenses. At a certain level, most people realize that we're all human beings. 

All that said, this election brought out a far, far darker side of American politics too. 

I confess it shouldn't be surprising. The signs were there in 2015, with people being assaulted at Trump rallies, Trump creating divisive rhetoric, he began to call the media the enemy of the people, he proposed 'alternative facts' and made a marching cry out of fake news. It only got worse from 2017 onwards. His erratic behavior, wannabe authoritarianism, and his gradual laying of the groundwork to undermine the democratic process and people's faith in it. It all led to the mass conspiracy theories in 2020 that were being spread before the election, and all the desperate, flailing and almost comedic actions afterwards. From spreading lies about voting fraud all the way to the courts, to the tragicomedy of his desperate calls to the Georgia secretary of state.

The counting process though was scrupulously and painstakingly carried out. A record number of Americans turned out to vote (which in the middle of a Pandemic killing over 1,000 a day by that point, no mean feat). It took a long time to crunch the numbers right, and many made comparisons to Bush v. Gore in 2000. In the end though, despite a less than stellar performance, Joe Biden and the Democratic Party won the election. There was a concerted effort to create a feeling that the system was rigged, or that it was unfair for Trump though. A narrative was spun almost from day one to suggest that if Trump didn't win it was because there was fraud.

I remember where I was though when the election was finally called for Biden. Someone told me they'd called Georgia, and Biden had won. I was briefly ecstatic, then suddenly nervous. I had seen the reports of disbelief from Trump voters, just as I saw the jubilation from millions who felt a great fear lifted from their shoulders. For others though, a great weight had been fraudulently placed upon it as Trump's insidious narrative wormed it's way through their brains. Between 50-70% of Republican voters believed the narrative that Biden had cheated and they protested, or demanded to see the ballot counting. Trump launched a blizzard of ineffectual lawsuits to overturn the results, and there were fears he might command enough clout to get state electors to simply make up voting fraud and cast their electoral votes for him.

President Joe Biden (from wikimedia)

Tragically though, it all came together in the dramatic and terrifying scenes of January 6th 2021. While holding a "stop the steal" rally in Washington exhorting his supporters over his lost election and the voting fraud, he and his sycophants egged on a crowd of people who genuinely believed that the election had been stolen. They had been lead to believe, as early as 2019 that the Democratic Party would be plotting to steal the election through rigging. Hell, even as early as 2016 when Trump claimed he only lost the popular vote by millions of fraudulent votes cast for Hillary Clinton. They had been primed to believe that democracy was in peril, and the election was being stolen from them!

So being exhorted to go to the Capitol to cheer on some lawmakers (but not others) with a farcical cry of "trial by combat" ringing in their ears, a crowd of thousands marched on Capitol Hill. After screaming at police for being traitors and demanding that they be let in, they overran the pitiful police presence and smashed their way into the Capitol building, causing Senators and Congressmen to shelter in place or flee for their lives as they were preparing to count the electoral votes. After a few hours of wandering, brawling with security and petty vandalism, the rioters were forced out.

It was a sad day for American democracy. The untarnished dream and peaceful transition of power had been shattered in the most offensive way possible.

Worryingly though, after the fact 45% of Republicans polled said they supported the actions of the rioters. Many said they'd be back. Many other people praised the act, and when I went trawling through the right wing internet, you had people either saying it was a "false flag", supporting it wholeheartedly, or suddenly being very quiet. There was rage from his adherents, but he gave them hope again. Until he was banned from Twitter.

There's no doubt Trump relished the riot though. He was tardy in calling in the National Guard, there had been no plans for any sort of security from the rally. He told his supporters they were special, and they loved them. The backlash though, was swift, his sycophants began tripping over each other to either resign from his administration or disown him. We shouldn't let them. There were calls for the 25th Amendment to be invoked and another push for impeachment, which succeeded, and is bringing on a second trial, making Trump the only President in history (so far) to be impeached twice.

In spite of all this though, I still believe that people in the US should try to embrace solidarity. It's so easy to get caught up in social media bubbles, and far too many Americans are! It breeds division, dissent, and terrifying alternate realities. It creates an overwhelming sense of alienation and hostility, whether on Twitter or in the work place. I know it does sound naive, or a tall order from people who are hostile to your existence, but one reason I hope is because the only other outcome is a further decline into political dysfunction and violence.

However, Trump's lies may make that inevitable. There is now a core of Republican voters who simply believe the 2020 election was stolen, and Biden is not a legitimately elected president of the United States. Here is a ready made narrative for the far-right to milk for years to come.

This all said, Biden is hardly something to write home about. I'd hazard a wager the Democratic Party could have run a dead mule and still won this election. Despite getting a truly enormous share of the popular vote, he still underperformed compared to Hillary Clinton on certain demographics. His campaign was largely uninspiring and perfunctory, and his victory belongs far more to grassroots organizers who got people out to vote in a time of pandemic and political repression for poor voters and people of color. These organizers also flipped Arizona for the first time in 20 years, secured Georgia, and enabled the Democrats to (barely) control the Senate.

Add that to his goal to pander to rich donors and a promise that "nothing will fundamentally change" and you have a bog standard Democrat whose only real selling point is that he isn't Donald Trump. While he did deliver a beautiful speech on the 20th, and there was a truly heartwarming ceremony to bring him in, it had many reminders that the US stands on the brink as a nation that is, at a more than one level, divided. Whether Biden can alter the trajectory of American politics remains to be seen. Personally, I wouldn't bet on it. However, we can all maintain some hope that the US will not slip further into dysfunction and there will be some way to bind up the nation. 

Otherwise, things get crazy.

That's all my thoughts on the craziest race for American democracy I've ever known, but I'm still not done talking about 2020! Stay tuned for my thoughts on a very crazy year.

Wages of Deficit

I have in the past noted that Donald Trump is a compulsive liar. He lies about the most inane things and is almost ridiculously blase about it. The most recent, which hits close to home and may have a direct impact on my country, is his claims regarding the trade deficit with Canada. The reports seem to indicate that Trump not only made up a spurious fact regarding his own nation's trade deficit with mine, but that he simply did not know, or care to know, what the actual state of affairs was. This despite now for over two years making broad sweeping statements at rallies, on Twitter, and in interviews, regarding the supposed "unfairness" of foreign trade with the United States.

While I have made no secret of my dislike for Donald Trump as an individual, I must ask, how can Trump expect international observers to take him seriously? How can foreign leaders expect Trump to negotiate in good faith with them?

The simple answer is, they can't. Trump will not, and does not, work in good faith either with members of his own administration or international leaders who are his allies. The man seems incapable of either being honest, or even doing rudimentary research into the effects of his own policies, or the ground which they are supposed to stand on when debated by policy makers.

What is baffling, utterly baffling, about this recent exchange, is that the lie makes no sense. In no circumstances does it even seem reasonable. Its not compelling fodder for a political campaign, it isn't a reasonable position to remain in ignorance of, and it isn't even a clever negotiating tactic considering how easy it is to disprove. He just bluntly said this to a foreign leader, and his countries closest neighbor and ally, and had it easily disproved.

He then waffled on whether he was wrong by stating that "almost all" countries have a trade deficit with the US, even though that specific statement was wrong. This isn't the first time Trump has made this claim, but it was the first time he was so bluntly called on it while talking to the head of state of the nation he's been misrepresenting like this.

The short term damage is repairable, as a new blunder from the Trump White House happens nearly weekly, but in terms of renegotiating NAFTA as he wants in the long term, it is iffy any other leader will see him as negotiating in good faith or reasonably. He's just sacked his Secretary of State, has been caught totally making something up and blithely continued with it, and seems utterly unwilling to compromise on his mistake. That is not a recipe for creating a sense of good will or confidence with any of the NAFTA partners, who may be better served simply waiting out any attempts at negotiation he proposes.

For other world leaders, it should simply be taken as Gospel that Trump has no clue what he is talking about, and that his representatives don't even represent his views to the world. The unfortunate effect this may have on his foreign policy remains to be seen, but I can only repeat something I have said before, Donald Trump cannot be trusted.

Terrorism By Any Other Name

I was deeply saddened to read of the events taking place in Charlottesville Virginia this weekend. The violence and simply shocking outpouring of hatred by the radical right white supremacists seems like something out of another age, and the events leading up to the terrorist attack of that day can only have belonged in another era. Surely we in the West are more enlightened?

Of course not.

From nebulous cloud

It is disturbing to note a rise in hate crimes and racist violence, the outright terror attack this weekend is something else.

We have seen this kind of tactic used in foreign terrorist attacks. Now we see someone, of a different ideology, driving a vehicle with deliberate intent into a crowd of ideological enemies and mowing down more then twenty before fleeing. Thankfully the assailant was arrested, and the violence in Virginia has ceased. But will it end here?

I am sad to say I think it will not. That is by and large because of the simple lack of response from Mr. Trump regarding these events, and then his broad blanket condemnation of violence and bigotry from "many sides", and his subsequent refusal to even condemn the racists and Nazis directly until  two days later. It screams of a pathetic dog whistle attempt to keep the radical right on his side, and that is simple moral cowardice.

What gave me cheer was seeing that despite the violence and rhetoric, the Nazis are condemned broadly by both political parties, and society at large. I think that means that we are truly moving away from that particular mistake of the past, but I hope that their hate and radicalism doesn't simply become attached to another cause in the future.

Let us hope and pray for a brighter future.

Conservative Insurgency: The Struggle to Take American Back 2009-2041 and our own 2016

So yesterday, on November 9th 2016, I woke up to something a year ago I would have laughed off as impossible, and utterly unrealistic. However, much to my own shock, Donald J. Trump has won the American election with a surprising cascade of victories in key battle ground states. Some people are horrified by this news, others are elated, but one thing is certain, Trump's victory was divisive.

However, on the 8th I began reading a book I purchased on Kindle so many years ago on a lark. That novel was Conservative Insurgency: The Struggle to Take American Back 2009-2041 by right wing novelist Kurt Schlichter.

What originally attracted me to it I cannot recall other than it had a catchy cover and comparisons to World War Z's writing style. It has the writing style down pat, but hardly as compelling a story. In brief, it is, since its 2014 publish date, it is now a piece of alternate history wherein "constitutional conservatives" are launching a long campaign of taking back their country through a political and cultural campaign against the nebulous forces of 'progressives' and 'liberalism' and to re-institute "the conservative vision of the Founders" against progressive dominance as exemplified by a two term President Hillary Clinton.

During this re-read I was struck by the uncanny similarities between many of the ideas espoused by these fictional characters, and the real life supporters of Donald Trump. Such were the similarities that I could not get many of them out of my head. So I thought that one interesting way to comment upon the unexpected events of our own time was to look at the ideology and methods that let this happen through the fictional lens of a novel.

In the novel itself it discusses a "cultural war" being waged against the forces of liberalism, and many would say that this is true today from one side of the political aisle. Most of the view point characters in the novel themselves express that they are trying to win their country back from the forces of the unpatriotic liberals. In order to do that, they set out to detach themselves from an ineffective GOP, wage a cultural war to make 'constitutional conservatism' more palatable to the masses by showing them that it is the liberals who are the racists, the liberals who don't support women, and the liberals who support big government and spying on the American people. Make of these claims what you will of course, but the book is all about attempting to show that these ideas of small government conservatives are palatable to people because they encourage personal liberty and freedom versus the liberals who just hunger for power for powers sake. And that the "progressives" will just use slander and lies to discredit and dismiss conservatives as "racists" and "bigots" who can be safely ignored in public discourse.

Ironically the book manages to hit on a number of points which are rather pertinent both in understanding the outcome of the recent election, and in hopefully understanding the common ground that can be found to lessen the division brought about by the election.

For instance, in the novel it discusses the idea of banding together with 'pot culture' as a symbol of personal freedom which is a means of taking away a section of people who would vote Democrat by passing laws which allow the freedom of choice in the matter and remove the burden that smoking or growing pot on the justice system. This is heralded as a step forward in forging a consensus around 'conservative' values. In real life though, during this election California, Massachusetts, Maine, and Nevada all passed legislation which would legalize marijuana, and so did the states of Arkansas, Florida, and North Dakota. So there may be something in the idea that this can bridge gaps. Rather than the false equivalency supported by the novel that "Right leads to freedom, left leads to tyranny."[1]

The novel also manages to hit an interesting number of highlights on the campaign which propelled Trump to power. For instance it discussed that due to the new conservative presidency there was a "border wall" which stopped illegal immigration and prevented millions of unregistered voters from supporting the Democrats.[2] This rather succinctly foretells Trumps long term (and impractical) promise to construct a wall to keep illegal immigrants out, and his promise to deport millions of illegal immigrants. This was the mean and potatoes of Trumps speeches from near the beginning, and one which seems to have meshed nicely with the views of enough Americans to propel him to power.

There is also touched upon the ideological feeling that global warming is a hoax [3a,b]. This seems to be a popular position as well, one cultivated by Fox news, and one happily espoused by Donald Trump, who at one point called it a Chinese hoax. This has been something he has campaigned on getting off of, and most specifically to remove the United States from various global warming related treaties.

However, there are two important points which I think the novel addressed which were very important in explaining the rise of Trump to the White House.

The first is that the novel is constantly harping on the GOP as not standing for 'conservative values' or not standing for the voters. That is something I believe the novel had right then, and is most certainly something the United States electorate agreed on in elevating Donald Trump to the Republican front runner. A political outsider, he has floated the idea of running for president since at least 1988, and he has never had any political experience, and compared to the insiders like Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz he was a breath of fresh air. However, he and the novel made the point that the GOP itself is not speaking for its own constituents. There was a feeling of frustration with the GOP establishment and one which we have seen has been fed since the rise of the Tea Party in 2008. The frustration voters must have felt as they saw their jobs disappearing and infrastructure crumbling[4], all against the backdrop of both a party elite which did not care about them, and an opposition which routinely mocked, marginalized, and discarded them.

That dovetails into a second point that these people were by and large reacting to a culture which regularly abuses and disregards them. That is to say, this is a rural vs urban divide, as David Wong eloquently articulates in his own article. In the novel though, this is presented as a great media gap of the "liberals" disregarding anyone who is conservative as 'racist, bigoted, or stupid' and simply writing them off as a lost cause. In the novel, as in real life, this is something that frustrates and alienates. In real life of course this is a problem where media has merely worked to portray these rural, culturally conservative folk as backwards and bigoted people who are best consigned to the dust bin of history. Calling half of your opponents base 'bigoted deplorables' is hardly engineered to garner either sympathy for you, or your policies.

As outlined in the excellent Cracked podcast on the subject this pattern of alienating a dismissing the people who supported Donald Trump and his policies, both by targeting them indirectly, and their candidate, merely served to strengthen the movement that rallied behind him. This was a direct reaction to eight years of Democrats in the White House, a Republican Party which had become out of touch with its own base, and fear of an uncertain future. Yes, these people are afraid, and concerned about their future. 59 million Americans did not just out themselves as closet racists. Dismissing them as such is counterproductive, much like this novels attempt to dismiss all liberals as power hungry hypocrites who follow a morally bankrupt ideology all for the sake of enriching themselves. It's merely a recipe for creating a toxic environment in social and political discourse.

When one examines how close this election was, with Hillary winning roughly 47.7% of the popular vote to Trump's 47.5%[5] then we can see that creating a further gulf between the people on both sides of the aisle should probably be avoided.

Though allow me to address one thing here. Just because people who voted were Trump were not themselves bigots, does not mean Trump did not rise to power on a wave of bigotry and he was not bigoted. Because boy did he ever. Trump has legitimized some disgusting attitudes and prejudices (which we can already see having a negative impact) that give lie to the idea racism and sexism are not a problem, and ones that, in my humble opinion, make him unfit to govern in Washington in the 21st century. His supporters were willing to overlook this though (much like supporters of Bill Clinton overlooked his sex scandals, and like many have overlooked Obama's poor record with expanding the NSA and drone warfare) because he brought them hope that they finally had someone willing to listen to their concerns.

Though let me be clear, just because someone voted for Trump does not mean they're beliefs, concerns, and fears for the future are invalid. It means that they voted for someone who they felt would address their concerns with what they see as the slow collapse of their country. Simply labeling all these people as bigots and racists and shutting their voices out is so destructive to long term reconciliation that I think such an idea should be rejected out of hand. The future voters need to be building bridges and trying to bring each other together to accomplish more, much as the novel here describes doing (but not in the way the author would like of course) in order to accomplish things that will truly make the United States great again.

There is a reason why rather than professing doom and gloom, commentators who had savaged Trump were able to speak through their disappointment and push for reconciliation between the two divided sides. They don't want a country split into two armed camps. They want a nation which will be stronger. Even Trump himself was asking for unity in his acceptance speech. Hell as David Wong said, Don't Panic. There is no reason to fear Trump will usher in a fascist empire, and even if he wants to roll back the clock on civil rights, he has to go through the voters first. Even if he does, he can't stay in office forever, and everything awful he might accomplish (or try to accomplish) can be undone. It's a democracy, the voters can push back!

Now why am I, a Canadian, writing about this?

Being honest, I think Trump is unfit for the office he has been elected to hold. However, he is the elected president of the United States. Everything he does will effect my country and many of his campaign promises may be devastating in the short term, or even in the long run if you compare his health and tax plans.

He has promised to make American great again. So did another man:

The Reagan years left a legacy of voodoo economics, enormous government debt, and an AIDs epidemic. And he campaigned on similar emotional appeals to fears and hopes.

It is my hope that Trump will be a blip on the map, a last hurrah for ugly populist rhetoric in the United States. He may have though, broken the traditional way politics is carried out, upsetting the political apple cart and letting more diverse candidates into the system and forcing the parties to listen to their constituents needs, and not tell them what they need. This has positive effects in the long run as it may shake up the system and allow new blood in.

In conclusion however, I know many people are hurting, confused, and shocked. But remember, there is hope. My prayers are with my neighbors to the south and I encourage every one to hold on. We are in what the Chinese call, interesting times. Thankfully, times much less interesting than the ones portrayed in the novel mentioned above.

------

1] Schlichter, Kurt. Conservative Insurgency: The Struggle to Take America Back 2009 - 2041 (Kindle Location 1910). Post Hill Press. Kindle Edition.

2] "Of course, we’ve deported a fair number and with the border wall up there’s no more tidal wave coming north." Schlichter, ibid, (Kindle Locations 1131-1132).

3a]"The guy who was into global warming? Remember that scam? It’s freaking six degrees outside!”
Schlichter, Kurt. ibid, (Kindle Locations 2044-2045).

3b]"Al Gore made a fortune off the global warming swindle—" Schlichter, ibid, (Kindle Locations 556-557).

4] Yes, the article is rather nakedly partisan, but it has one of the most succinct descriptions of the total failings of the American infrastructure I could find.

5] Making this the 5th time this has happened in US history. As of time of writing these numbers are accurate.