2034

Just beyond the scope of my recent WWIII reads, we come to the not too distant future with a thriller set in the year 2034. The novel was written by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis, both had military experience and an insight into the world of the military from the top to the bottom. It made me quite curious to see their views on what a future conflict with a peer competitor might look like.

The novel is, unsurprisingly, set in early 2034, taking place in the South China Sea and Iran at first. It looks at one of the areas of heightened tensions in the world and from there tries to trace a series of events where the two global powers end up in a series of increasing miscalculations and escalations which lead to, if not all out war, then a fairly close approximation of it.

From amazon.ca

Told through the eyes of USN Captain Sarah Hunt, Marine pilot Major Chris "Wedge" Mitchell, deputy security advisor Sandeep Chowdhury, Revolutionary Guards Brigadier General Qassim Farshad, and finally Peoples Liberation Navy Commander Lin Bao. Through this cast of characters, from diverse and at odds nations, we see truly horrific events unfold in ways we can only hope will never happen.

In 2034 we see the authors being just ambitious enough with the history leading up to these events to engage the reader but not bog them down with geopolitics. We have references to India fighting a brief proxy war with Pakistan, Israel losing control of the Golan Heights, Russia annexing Belarus and much of Ukraine, and Iran engaging in various client state building wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. The US political system has apparent faced so much gridlock that the president is an independent and an octogenarian Putin still rules Russia, with NATO slowly falling apart in the background. It's enough background to keep an audience engaged, but not so much that you can't hope to understand the world around you.

Looking at these events also helps explain why the United States becomes extremely concerned with face saving measures in the Pacific, rather than potentially concentrating on the broader outcome like further Russian aggression in Europe, Iranian proxy wars and other factors a US which is humiliated by a foreign power might suffer. 

The novel's main premise, and overall cautionary moral, is to chide many American commentators and planners who blithely assume the United States will remain at the top of the technological dog pile. In begins with the Wèn Rui Incident in the South China Sea where unspecified advances in Chinese cyberwarfare capabilities blackout the communications of a small USN flotilla, and swiftly lead to shots fired. Almost concurrently an F-35 is hacked by (supposedly) Iranian forces who force it to land inside Iran and take the pilot hostage. Either incident alone would be enough to trigger a harsh response, both trigger an escalation.

A United States shorn of its usual expectation of technological advantage discovers itself lacking many options it might otherwise employ beyond brute force. Miscalculations in Washington and Beijing each lead to more shots fired in anger, and horrendous consequences ensue. 

Unlike my previous reads, where combat and technological know-how was highlighted, this book was much more interested in things like exploring nightmares from someone who commanded a losing battle, an old warrior seeing too much and desiring peace, and a political man thrust into a situation he was totally unprepared for and his much more powerful boss has to save face against. That doesn't mean we don't get a look at war, but the action scenes are few and far between, with battles largely being described after the fact. It made for an interesting change of pace and an overall shorter book (300 pages vs the 400-900 of previous reads) that flowed very easily.

That's not to say this was necessarily an improvement. The story, after all, is trying to present a cautionary tale that the US may find itself too dependent on overall technological superiority and lacks any strategic deterrent outside its nuclear arsenal. This did, overall, lead to a very limited look at strategy (the US's potential allies in the Pacific are all absent, and only the potential enemies get mentioned, suggesting something has gone horrifically wrong with international alliance systems) and it did leave me with more than a few questions on that front.

While I understood that the premise of the story would be impossible without the Chinese developing an advantage on some front, it did feel a bit odd that so many of the US's other contemporaries, like India, had completely blindsided it on similar fronts. Not necessarily impossible - the year the war is set is nearly fourteen years away, plenty is possible - but just very convenient for the plot. 

It was an interesting story, but the characters did feel a little thin. Sarah Hunt in particular had some of the most moving moments, but I felt I never really got inside her head the way I did for Wedge, Chowdhury or Farshad. Chowdhury was the most globe trotting character, going between the White House and New Delhi, engaging in delicate political maneuvers and probably having the most "American" outlook by being a proud immigrant and dealing with the backlash many immigrants in similar situations would face. The other characters were fine, but Lin Bao fell almost too far in the territory of a mediocre villain at times. In complete fairness to the novel though, no nation really comes off as a "good guy" in this scenario, with everyone being guided by realpolitik rather than rational policy decisions.

2034 is a chilling piece of future history. Whether you find the scenario realistic or not, it does its best to show how a future war might not be one we're overly familiar with, but no less deadly for all that. An intriguing and cautionary tale which may be well worth your time.